An article stating the almost inevitable result of the growth of artificial intelligence. The key point it makes, which seems reasonable, is that “About 47% of total US employment is at risk from technologies now operational in laboratories and in the field.” Obviously a similar figure applies to most other developed economies.
I’m neither in the group that portrays this as a disaster for mankind, nor that this is a wonderful opportunity for us all. The truth is likely to be a messy combination. The developments in AI mean this is almost an inevitability, and our ability to adapt to change is immense.
Ray Kurzweil says that by 2029 machines will be as intelligent as man, and I believe that completely (intelligence including reasoning and awareness, not just the logic that todays computers employ). The article above says that humans are very bad at foreseeing and managing sudden change, as will happen over the next 14 years or so, which is also generally true (one of the failings of any future-gazing is that we base projections on our knowledge of the current and historical state). It’s also impossible to predict our acceptance of these changes.
The biggest challenge I see is preventing the benefits of these changes being passed solely to todays current ‘wealthy elite’ rather than being more widely distributed. How we adapt over this period to these monumental changes will define our world for generations to come, and it will be a fascinating ride full of opportunity and failure.